Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
141.07 – 169.58
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
205 – 343
Prediction correct · off by 118.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 49.71Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 54Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 37.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 50Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 39.58Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 80Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2421, 3748, 346
50
/ 100 compatProjected
141.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2421, 3748, 346
Auto
38.8 27%
Teleop
82.0 58%
Endgame
21.8 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10679, 620, 1908
53
/ 100 compatProjected
169.6 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10679, 620, 1908
Auto
27.9 16%
Teleop
105.6 62%
Endgame
36.8 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score141.1pts
Blue projected score169.6pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample246alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.5
- Score range
- 95–216
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
486.5Season APEX416.1
38.8Auto27.9
82Teleop105.6
21.8Endgame36.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 30 | 41 |
| teleop | 131 | 228 |
| endgame | 44 | 69 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 205 | 343 |
Result
Final score
205 – 343
Prediction correct · off by 118.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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