FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.9 – 178.58

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

273 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.5 ±9.9

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 82Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 53.45Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 51.45Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.1 ±9.3

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 51.14Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 45.44Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 82Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11318, 619, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11318, 619, 1111

Auto

32.0 17%

Teleop

115.8 62%

Endgame

38.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 3258, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 686, 3258, 422

Auto

31.5 18%

Teleop

104.8 59%

Endgame

41.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score186.9pts

Blue projected score178.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 133–233
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 254.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.5Season APEX560.1

32Auto31.5

115.8Teleop104.8

38.1Endgame41.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	49
teleop	159	161
endgame	73	33
foul	5	0
total	273	243

Result

Final score

273 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.