FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.12 – 149.34

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.6 ±9.8

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 46.29Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 124.27Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 41.56Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.3 ±9.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 51.34Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 46.29Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 51.71Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10224, 2199, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10224, 2199, 2890

Auto

43.0 20%

Teleop

129.4 61%

Endgame

38.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 5549, 5587

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 122, 5549, 5587

Auto

24.0 16%

Teleop

95.3 63%

Endgame

32.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score212.1pts

Blue projected score149.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.8
Score range: 102–259
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 263.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.6Season APEX506.3

43Auto24

129.4Teleop95.3

38.7Endgame32.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	94	78
endgame	70	38
foul	0	0
total	183	137

Result

Final score

183 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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