FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.48 – 238.8

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.6 ±9.8

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 57.1Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 65.71Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 101.67Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.5 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 101.67Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 96.85Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 40.28Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 1389, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2068, 1389, 449

Auto

51.8 23%

Teleop

146.0 65%

Endgame

26.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 2106, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9072, 2106, 5804

Auto

57.5 24%

Teleop

157.0 66%

Endgame

24.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.5pts

Blue projected score238.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.3
Score range: 178–285
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 257.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.6Season APEX660.5

51.8Auto57.5

146Teleop157

26.7Endgame24

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	27
teleop	205	170
endgame	59	105
foul	20	0
total	340	302

Result

Final score

340 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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