FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 108

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.83 – 180.37

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446 ±9.8

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 129.3Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 84.24Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 82.29Rank 51Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.1 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 22.66Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 28.3Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 129.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 620, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 422, 620, 1262

Auto

33.0 11%

Teleop

187.0 64%

Endgame

72.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2421, 3258, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2421, 3258, 540

Auto

48.9 27%

Teleop

73.8 41%

Endgame

55.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.8pts

Blue projected score180.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.5
Score range: 129–347
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446Season APEX359.1

33Auto48.9

187Teleop73.8

72.5Endgame55.6

124Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	43
teleop	106	67
endgame	80	21
foul	20	0
total	234	131

Result

Final score

234 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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