FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.45 – 206.97

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.2 ±9.3

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 31.66Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 170.53Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 116.26Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 16.13Rank 36Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 68.53Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 122.31Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 1908, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3361, 1908, 1727

Auto

45.7 15%

Teleop

196.2 64%

Endgame

64.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 3748, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1111, 3748, 1086

Auto

42.4 20%

Teleop

109.9 52%

Endgame

58.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score318.5pts

Blue projected score207pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.5
Score range: 156–369
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 283.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.2Season APEX327.9

45.7Auto42.4

196.2Teleop109.9

64Endgame58.3

98Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	71
teleop	204	174
endgame	158	62
foul	0	15
total	400	322

Result

Final score

400 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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