FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.43 – 409.18

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

303 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±9.8

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 94.93Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -8.93Rank 54Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 93.43Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.8 ±9.3

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 223.32Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 152.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.87Rank 53Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 9033, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 614, 9033, 10224

Auto

41.7 23%

Teleop

105.2 57%

Endgame

38.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 449, 1731, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 449, 1731, 8590

Auto

88.1 22%

Teleop

254.8 63%

Endgame

62.4 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score409.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.7
Score range: 128–460
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 281.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.1Season APEX597.8

41.7Auto88.1

105.2Teleop254.8

38Endgame62.4

127Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	86
teleop	146	214
endgame	98	90
foul	10	5
total	303	395

Result

Final score

303 – 395

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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