FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.63 – 232.23

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±10.4

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 5.46Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 104.18Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 62.99Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±10.4

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 51.33Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 130.14Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 50.76Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5587, 888, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5587, 888, 4541

Auto

49.1 30%

Teleop

75.1 46%

Endgame

38.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5804, 3136, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5804, 3136, 5724

Auto

32.3 14%

Teleop

125.7 55%

Endgame

70.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score232.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 122–283
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 281.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.6Season APEX278.1

49.1Auto32.3

75.1Teleop125.7

38.2Endgame70.2

160Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	39
teleop	109	125
endgame	19	85
foul	0	0
total	190	249

Result

Final score

190 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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