FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.64 – 163

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.5 ±9.8

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 59.12Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 49.86Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 152.66Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.6 ±10.4

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 61.14Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 32.67Rank 47Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 69.19Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 10679, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 339, 10679, 686

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

154.8 59%

Endgame

61.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2537, 2068, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

163 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2537, 2068, 3939

Auto

27.3 17%

Teleop

89.4 57%

Endgame

40.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score261.6pts

Blue projected score163pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.6
Score range: 112–313
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 283.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.5Season APEX329.6

47.5Auto27.3

154.8Teleop89.4

61.9Endgame40.1

82Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	23
teleop	101	53
endgame	48	16
foul	0	15
total	221	107

Result

Final score

221 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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