FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.49 – 448.57

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±10.4

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 62.63Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 84.34Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 70.52Rank 35Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.5 ±9.3

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 206.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 175.93Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 66.42Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 4472, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2890, 4472, 5243

Auto

55.3 26%

Teleop

103.4 48%

Endgame

57.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 4099, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2106, 4099, 2377

Auto

79.1 18%

Teleop

272.6 61%

Endgame

92.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score217.5pts

Blue projected score448.6pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -231.1
Score range: 166–500
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 282.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.1Season APEX663.5

55.3Auto79.1

103.4Teleop272.6

57.2Endgame92.3

110Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	85
teleop	106	255
endgame	55	59
foul	5	0
total	180	399

Result

Final score

180 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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