FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.74 – 292.32

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±9.8

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 141.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 124.34Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 33.18Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.3 ±10.4

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 183.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 41.58Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 66.76Rank 25Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 122, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 619, 122, 1719

Auto

58.6 20%

Teleop

155.2 53%

Endgame

81.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 11425, 10004

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11415, 11425, 10004

Auto

42.5 15%

Teleop

171.3 59%

Endgame

77.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score292.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 241–350
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 565 vs event baseline 280.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX351.3

58.6Auto42.5

155.2Teleop171.3

81.4Endgame77.7

113Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	40
teleop	234	53
endgame	51	97
foul	15	5
total	370	195

Result

Final score

370 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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