Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
249.14 – 253.99
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
387 – 225
Prediction missed · off by 83.4 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 116.57Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 72Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 60.57Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 93.71Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 37.14Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 123.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 540, 1086, 8592
67
/ 100 compatProjected
249.1 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 540, 1086, 8592
Auto
49.4 20%
Teleop
149.4 60%
Endgame
50.3 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1719, 3361, 1731
66
/ 100 compatProjected
254 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1719, 3361, 1731
Auto
52.9 21%
Teleop
159.7 63%
Endgame
40.0 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 66%
Supercharged: 27%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.79
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score249.1pts
Blue projected score254pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample246alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -4.9
- Score range
- 204–299
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
469.2Season APEX376.8
49.4Auto52.9
149.4Teleop159.7
50.3Endgame40
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 62 |
| teleop | 201 | 145 |
| endgame | 142 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 387 | 225 |
Result
Final score
387 – 225
Prediction missed · off by 83.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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