FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.4 – 472.29

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602 ±9.3

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 45.42Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 187.16Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 113.82Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.1 ±8.7

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 212.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 119.72Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 139.59Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1719, 2106, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1719, 2106, 401

Auto

77.4 23%

Teleop

211.3 62%

Endgame

54.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 449, 540, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 449, 540, 9072

Auto

104.4 22%

Teleop

267.7 57%

Endgame

100.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.4pts

Blue projected score472.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.9
Score range: 292–526
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 736 vs event baseline 297.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602Season APEX750.1

77.4Auto104.4

211.3Teleop267.7

54.3Endgame100.3

117Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	118
teleop	214	258
endgame	39	32
foul	0	0
total	328	408

Result

Final score

328 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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