FIRST Chesapeake District Championship presented by C-CAM, VSU, Go Tec, and NASA

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.26 – 423.68

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

467 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 821.4 ±8.7

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 213.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 117.06Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 145.74Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710 ±8.7

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 118.93Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 166.45Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 138.3Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 5549, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 449, 5549, 836

Auto

89.6 19%

Teleop

271.2 58%

Endgame

110.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 4099, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1727, 4099, 9072

Auto

88.2 21%

Teleop

228.7 55%

Endgame

102.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score476.3pts

Blue projected score423.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample246alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.6
Score range: 371–529
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 928 vs event baseline 296.4.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

821.4Season APEX710

89.6Auto88.2

271.2Teleop228.7

110.4Endgame102.7

109Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	103
teleop	243	244
endgame	87	114
foul	0	0
total	467	461

Result

Final score

467 – 461

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Match videos

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