Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.83 – 150.56

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.3 ±9.9

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 101.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 33.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 101.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±11.7

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 34.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 70.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 45.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3512, 6060, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3512, 6060, 1538

Auto

45.2 20%

Teleop

132.3 58%

Endgame

50.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4711, 5136, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 5136, 1388

Auto

22.1 16%

Teleop

77.5 57%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.8pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.3
Score range: 122–266
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.3Season APEX429.6

45.2Auto22.1

132.3Teleop77.5

50.9Endgame37.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	28
teleop	88	60
endgame	83	46
foul	5	0
total	214	134

Result

Final score

214 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Match videos

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