Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

483.37 – 243.38

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 922.1 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 145.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 27.64Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 310.03Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.3 ±9.9

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 104.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 35.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 103.98Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 589, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

483.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 589, 4414

Auto

100.4 21%

Teleop

282.5 58%

Endgame

100.4 21%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3512, 6060, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3512, 6060, 1538

Auto

45.9 20%

Teleop

140.1 60%

Endgame

47.4 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score483.4pts

Blue projected score243.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240
Score range: 214–512
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

922.1Season APEX628.3

100.4Auto45.9

282.5Teleop140.1

100.4Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	137	47
teleop	265	85
endgame	78	68
foul	0	0
total	480	200

Result

Final score

480 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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