Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.46 – 154.9

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±10.5

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 17.6Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 52.49Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 80.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±11.7

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 36.46Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 71.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 46.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 6560, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 6560, 3501

Auto

24.5 17%

Teleop

84.1 57%

Endgame

39.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4711, 5136, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 5136, 1388

Auto

20.6 14%

Teleop

82.7 56%

Endgame

45.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.5pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.4
Score range: 121–184
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.8Season APEX429.6

24.5Auto20.6

84.1Teleop82.7

39Endgame45

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	33
teleop	26	44
endgame	16	0
foul	0	45
total	51	122

Result

Final score

51 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 66.2 pts

Match videos

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