Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.87 – 116.91

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.2 ±11.6

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 32.81Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 21.94Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 39.12Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±10.5

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 72.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 18.35Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 26.11Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 6934, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 6934, 5012

Auto

34.6 38%

Teleop

40.7 45%

Endgame

16.0 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 5285, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 5285, 11024

Auto

25.2 23%

Teleop

62.8 57%

Endgame

21.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.9pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23
Score range: 65–146
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.2Season APEX372.3

34.6Auto25.2

40.7Teleop62.8

16Endgame21.7

15Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	43
teleop	17	67
endgame	24	35
foul	0	0
total	83	145

Result

Final score

83 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Match videos

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