Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.88 – 167.91

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.5 ±9.9

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 27.9Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 124.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 93.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.6 ±11.7

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 40.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 76.18Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 51.16Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9271, 599, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9271, 599, 5199

Auto

49.1 20%

Teleop

144.2 59%

Endgame

50.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4711, 5136, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 5136, 1388

Auto

19.8 12%

Teleop

92.7 58%

Endgame

46.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.9pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78
Score range: 139–275
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.5Season APEX429.6

49.1Auto19.8

144.2Teleop92.7

50.3Endgame46.8

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	27
teleop	133	44
endgame	72	42
foul	25	0
total	298	113

Result

Final score

298 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Match videos

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