Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.76 – 150.41

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 732.6 ±9.3

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -0.65Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 120.45Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 143.96Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.8 ±10.5

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 17.52Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 53.01Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 79.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 192, 7415, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 7415, 6036

Auto

49.0 19%

Teleop

156.0 60%

Endgame

53.9 21%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3309, 6560, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 6560, 3501

Auto

27.8 19%

Teleop

80.8 55%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.8pts

Blue projected score150.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.4
Score range: 121–293
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 159.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

732.6Season APEX485.8

49Auto27.8

156Teleop80.8

53.9Endgame38

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	16
teleop	105	89
endgame	51	45
foul	0	0
total	224	150

Result

Final score

224 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Match videos

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