Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.25 – 231.23

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 732.6 ±9.3

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -8.35Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 110.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 133.99Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.3 ±9.9

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 99.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 31.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 99.73Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 192, 7415, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 7415, 6036

Auto

58.7 25%

Teleop

125.2 54%

Endgame

47.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3512, 6060, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3512, 6060, 1538

Auto

42.5 19%

Teleop

126.5 56%

Endgame

55.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.3pts

Blue projected score231.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5
Score range: 202–265
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

732.6Season APEX628.3

58.7Auto42.5

125.2Teleop126.5

47.4Endgame55.3

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	63
teleop	109	51
endgame	28	39
foul	0	0
total	222	153

Result

Final score

222 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Match videos

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