Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

483.86 – 259.67

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 922.1 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 146.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 27.38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 310.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 732.6 ±9.3

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -0.91Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 118.71Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 141.87Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 589, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

483.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 589, 4414

Auto

105.9 22%

Teleop

281.4 58%

Endgame

96.2 20%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 192, 7415, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 7415, 6036

Auto

58.1 23%

Teleop

142.9 56%

Endgame

55.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score483.9pts

Blue projected score259.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.2
Score range: 231–513
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

922.1Season APEX732.6

105.9Auto58.1

281.4Teleop142.9

96.2Endgame55.6

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	62
teleop	251	20
endgame	138	1
foul	0	15
total	508	98

Result

Final score

508 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 92.9 pts

Match videos

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