Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.04 – 35.39

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.4 ±13.3

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 5.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 8.29Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX -0.39Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±11.7

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 12.86Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 8.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 14.24Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6060, 8521, 691

/ 100 compat

Projected

13 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 8521, 691

Auto

5.9 43%

Teleop

4.9 36%

Endgame

2.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5012, 4711, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 4711, 3501

Auto

6.7 18%

Teleop

16.1 43%

Endgame

14.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13pts

Blue projected score35.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: -11–59
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.4Season APEX459.1

5.9Auto6.7

4.9Teleop16.1

2.8Endgame14.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	19
teleop	13	62
endgame	9	48
foul	0	0
total	30	129

Result

Final score

30 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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