Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.6 – 119.61

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±10.5

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 6.03Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 37.43Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 139.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.1 ±11.2

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 27.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 37.43Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 54.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 192, 5285, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 5285, 973

Auto

34.2 19%

Teleop

123.3 67%

Endgame

26.3 14%

Strengths

· 973 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 9520, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 9520, 5136

Auto

33.9 29%

Teleop

44.5 38%

Endgame

37.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.6pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 95–208
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.3Season APEX385.1

34.2Auto33.9

123.3Teleop44.5

26.3Endgame37.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	17
teleop	54	40
endgame	8	32
foul	5	0
total	124	89

Result

Final score

124 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 44.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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