Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.45 – 140.01

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.2 ±10.5

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 132.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 81.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 30.19Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.3 ±11.7

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 95.57Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 31.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 12.8Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 5136, 6934

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 5136, 6934

Auto

48.5 20%

Teleop

141.6 58%

Endgame

52.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 9271, 6764

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 9271, 6764

Auto

29.2 20%

Teleop

79.5 56%

Endgame

33.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.5pts

Blue projected score140pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.4
Score range: 112–272
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 156.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.2Season APEX388.3

48.5Auto29.2

141.6Teleop79.5

52.2Endgame33.9

0Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	41
teleop	88	18
endgame	39	34
foul	15	15
total	178	108

Result

Final score

178 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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