Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.27 – 51.42

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±12.2

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 21.72Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 32Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 20.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320 ±12.2

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 24.88Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -3.85Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 30.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8533, 3925, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 3925, 5285

Auto

17.8 24%

Teleop

32.6 43%

Endgame

24.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 589, 5869, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 589, 5869, 6060

Auto

17.2 37%

Teleop

4.8 10%

Endgame

24.5 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 23–102
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 157.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX320

17.8Auto17.2

32.6Teleop4.8

24.8Endgame24.5

14Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	9
teleop	34	27
endgame	22	16
foul	15	0
total	93	52

Result

Final score

93 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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