Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.2 – 172.7

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 77.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607 ±10.7

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 74.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 114.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 14.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±10.7

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 137.85Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 22.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 11.98Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 7415, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3501, 7415, 10936

Auto

34.3 17%

Teleop

122.6 62%

Endgame

41.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6036, 11024, 8521

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6036, 11024, 8521

Auto

48.9 30%

Teleop

83.8 52%

Endgame

29.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.2pts

Blue projected score172.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 145–231
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607Season APEX528.5

34.3Auto48.9

122.6Teleop83.8

41Endgame29.1

28Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	60
teleop	147	139
endgame	89	51
foul	0	0
total	281	250

Result

Final score

281 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 77.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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