Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.37 – 219.36

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±9.9

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 113.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 22.92Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 36.92Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.8 ±10.7

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 128.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 72.92Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.81Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7415, 11024, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7415, 11024, 5012

Auto

23.3 14%

Teleop

101.7 60%

Endgame

44.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 599, 3501, 8533

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 3501, 8533

Auto

37.6 17%

Teleop

122.7 57%

Endgame

55.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.4pts

Blue projected score219.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 145–247
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 154.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX637.8

23.3Auto37.6

101.7Teleop122.7

44.2Endgame55.5

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	129	149
endgame	19	77
foul	10	15
total	205	262

Result

Final score

205 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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