Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.67 – 213.2

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504 ±10.5

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 12.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 19.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 136.48Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.4 ±12.4

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 148.66Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 22.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 42.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 5285, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 5285, 6036

Auto

52.6 32%

Teleop

73.5 45%

Endgame

37.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 10936, 4711

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 10936, 4711

Auto

53.0 25%

Teleop

127.6 60%

Endgame

31.4 15%

Strengths

· 973 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score213.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.5
Score range: 141–241
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504Season APEX425.4

52.6Auto53

73.5Teleop127.6

37.9Endgame31.4

10Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	69
teleop	97	46
endgame	17	26
foul	10	0
total	195	141

Result

Final score

195 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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