Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.02 – 126.12

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.7 ±11.2

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 12.98Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 121.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 3.82Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.3 ±11

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 71.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 33.21Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 21.36Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 599, 5500

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 599, 5500

Auto

29.1 21%

Teleop

80.1 59%

Endgame

27.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 589, 6934

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1160, 589, 6934

Auto

26.8 22%

Teleop

56.4 46%

Endgame

38.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 96–168
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.7Season APEX431.3

29.1Auto26.8

80.1Teleop56.4

27.7Endgame38.4

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	15
teleop	21	105
endgame	33	54
foul	5	0
total	103	174

Result

Final score

103 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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