Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.54 – 211.59

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±13.3

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.49Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 35.47Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 20.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.4 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 137.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -1.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 75.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8533, 5012, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8533, 5012, 10936

Auto

13.5 18%

Teleop

26.5 35%

Endgame

36.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 3309, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 3309, 3512

Auto

68.6 32%

Teleop

122.3 57%

Endgame

22.8 11%

Strengths

· 973 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.5pts

Blue projected score211.6pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138
Score range: 47–239
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX663.4

13.5Auto68.6

26.5Teleop122.3

36.8Endgame22.8

24Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	54
teleop	28	227
endgame	27	73
foul	5	0
total	95	354

Result

Final score

95 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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