Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.7 – 126.44

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±12.2

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 6.74Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 59.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 36.29Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.1 ±12.4

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 7.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 110.85Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 8.3Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6764, 6560, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6764, 6560, 589

Auto

24.2 23%

Teleop

54.2 52%

Endgame

25.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 22, 5199, 9520

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 22, 5199, 9520

Auto

37.9 29%

Teleop

61.9 47%

Endgame

30.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score126.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.7
Score range: 76–153
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX418.1

24.2Auto37.9

54.2Teleop61.9

25.3Endgame30.8

53Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	31	58
endgame	10	17
foul	5	0
total	62	106

Result

Final score

62 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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