Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.07 – 168.57

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 899.6 ±8.7

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 109.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 126.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 129.23Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±12.1

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 50.57Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 74.1Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 43.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 599, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5199, 599, 6036

Auto

83.2 23%

Teleop

201.7 56%

Endgame

76.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5012, 6560, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 6560, 6060

Auto

24.9 15%

Teleop

91.0 54%

Endgame

53.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score366.1pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.5
Score range: 143–392
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

899.6Season APEX285.9

83.2Auto24.9

201.7Teleop91

76.1Endgame53.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	24
teleop	247	18
endgame	54	1
foul	0	0
total	398	43

Result

Final score

398 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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