Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.36 – 21

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±12.4

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 10.99Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 108.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 12.95Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.2 ±11.7

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 30.15Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -2.84Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -6.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9520, 7415, 6764

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9520, 7415, 6764

Auto

14.4 11%

Teleop

83.4 63%

Endgame

34.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 3309, 7327

/ 100 compat

Projected

21 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 3309, 7327

Auto

22.0 91%

Teleop

-11.4 0%

Endgame

13.5 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score21pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.4
Score range: -6–159
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.9Season APEX228.2

14.4Auto22

83.4Teleop-11.4

34.2Endgame13.5

50Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	47	0
endgame	17	0
foul	0	5
total	85	20

Result

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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