Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
79.49 – 71.86
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
29 – 45
Prediction missed · off by 38.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 25.05Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 34.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 20.22Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±12.2
Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 44.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -11.86Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 39.27Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9271, 4711, 8521
38
/ 100 compatProjected
79.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9271, 4711, 8521
Auto
12.8 17%
Teleop
35.3 47%
Endgame
27.6 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1388, 7327, 5012
41
/ 100 compatProjected
71.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 1388, 7327, 5012
Auto
19.4 30%
Teleop
30.2 46%
Endgame
15.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score79.5pts
Blue projected score71.9pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 7.6
- Score range
- 42–109
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
197.1Season APEX342.7
12.8Auto19.4
35.3Teleop30.2
27.6Endgame15.4
3Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 13 |
| teleop | 8 | 12 |
| endgame | 13 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 29 | 45 |
Result
Final score
29 – 45
Prediction missed · off by 38.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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