Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.27 – 84.55

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±10.5

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 59.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 94.3Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 18.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.1 ±12.8

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 20.67Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 16.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 47.63Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5136, 1538, 9271

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5136, 1538, 9271

Auto

25.9 16%

Teleop

104.8 64%

Endgame

33.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5500, 22, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5500, 22, 589

Auto

21.1 25%

Teleop

33.7 40%

Endgame

28.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.3pts

Blue projected score84.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.7
Score range: 58–199
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.3Season APEX282.1

25.9Auto21.1

104.8Teleop33.7

33.3Endgame28.9

15Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	12
teleop	163	0
endgame	62	3
foul	0	0
total	272	15

Result

Final score

272 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 84.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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