Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.13 – 128.3

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209 ±13.3

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -3.14Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -1.26Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 12.53Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±11.2

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 14.53Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 34.57Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 79.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1661, 7323, 8533

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 7323, 8533

Auto

6.1 84%

Teleop

-9.7 0%

Endgame

10.9 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6764, 3925, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6764, 3925, 3501

Auto

31.0 25%

Teleop

65.9 54%

Endgame

26.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score8.1pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.2
Score range: -19–155
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209Season APEX418.9

6.1Auto31

-9.7Teleop65.9

10.9Endgame26

0Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	16	61
endgame	15	34
foul	0	0
total	43	110

Result

Final score

43 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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