Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.72 – 414.81

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154 ±13.9

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 26.23Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 32.4Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 28.09Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 846.7 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 281.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 38.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 95.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9520, 10936, 5500

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9520, 10936, 5500

Auto

25.1 29%

Teleop

24.8 28%

Endgame

37.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4414, 5136, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 5136, 5199

Auto

72.2 18%

Teleop

238.4 58%

Endgame

100.5 24%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.7pts

Blue projected score414.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -328.1
Score range: 61–441
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154Season APEX846.7

25.1Auto72.2

24.8Teleop238.4

37.9Endgame100.5

20Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	96
teleop	0	335
endgame	0	141
foul	0	0
total	15	572

Result

Final score

15 – 572

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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