Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.39 – 111.34

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±12.4

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -7.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 18.2Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 117.15Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.3 ±11.6

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 47.79Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 50.46Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 13.09Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7327, 22, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7327, 22, 7415

Auto

13.2 10%

Teleop

95.6 75%

Endgame

18.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 589, 5012, 5285

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 589, 5012, 5285

Auto

35.8 32%

Teleop

32.0 29%

Endgame

43.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.4pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 85–153
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 146.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.2Season APEX369.3

13.2Auto35.8

95.6Teleop32

18.1Endgame43.9

31Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	25
teleop	55	51
endgame	54	27
foul	0	0
total	127	103

Result

Final score

127 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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