Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.7 – 109.78

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325 ±10.5

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 20.5Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 12.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -2.24Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567.5 ±11.2

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX -3.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 23.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 90.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 9271, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 9271, 3309

Auto

11.8 41%

Teleop

-1.4 0%

Endgame

18.3 64%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5869, 1388, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5869, 1388, 1538

Auto

15.5 15%

Teleop

84.8 81%

Endgame

3.9 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.7pts

Blue projected score109.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.1
Score range: 4–137
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325Season APEX567.5

11.8Auto15.5

-1.4Teleop84.8

18.3Endgame3.9

87Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	39
teleop	32	85
endgame	0	19
foul	0	15
total	48	158

Result

Final score

48 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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