Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.86 – 1.29

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.8 ±11.7

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 46.12Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 74.61Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 43.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.9 ±13.9

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -6.43Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 6.9Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 0.82Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 1160, 4711

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 1160, 4711

Auto

18.2 11%

Teleop

94.8 58%

Endgame

51.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1661, 6764, 8521

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 6764, 8521

Auto

12.4 0%

Teleop

-11.8 100%

Endgame

-7.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.9pts

Blue projected score1.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.6
Score range: -26–191
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 148.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.8Season APEX137.9

18.2Auto12.4

94.8Teleop-11.8

51.5Endgame-7.6

11Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	120	23
endgame	23	2
foul	0	5
total	158	47

Result

Final score

158 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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