Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.3 – 243.56

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±10.5

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 68.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -13.81Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 71.74Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.1 ±11.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 258.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 3.31Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -17.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3512, 192, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3512, 192, 6560

Auto

22.4 18%

Teleop

85.6 68%

Endgame

18.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4414, 5500, 7323

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 5500, 7323

Auto

50.8 21%

Teleop

149.3 61%

Endgame

45.6 19%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.3pts

Blue projected score243.6pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.3
Score range: 100–270
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.6Season APEX532.1

22.4Auto50.8

85.6Teleop149.3

18.5Endgame45.6

39Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	59
teleop	76	253
endgame	33	123
foul	5	0
total	144	435

Result

Final score

144 – 435

Prediction correct · off by 104.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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