Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.97 – 131.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±12.2

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 58.7Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 48.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 20.78Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±11.7

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 99.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -1.03Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 33.41Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5012, 5136, 22

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 5136, 22

Auto

33.6 28%

Teleop

57.8 48%

Endgame

29.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7415, 8533, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7415, 8533, 6060

Auto

2.5 2%

Teleop

87.9 68%

Endgame

39.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score131.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.9
Score range: 102–158
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.1Season APEX419.8

33.6Auto2.5

57.8Teleop87.9

29.8Endgame39.7

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	48	152
endgame	18	101
foul	0	0
total	84	268

Result

Final score

84 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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