Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.28 – 341.53

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 678 ±9.8

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 84.31Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 25.2Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 56.77Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 950.7 ±8.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 87.83Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 124.34Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 129.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 1388, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3501, 1388, 589

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

96.6 58%

Endgame

45.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1538, 6036, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 6036, 973

Auto

103.4 31%

Teleop

187.0 56%

Endgame

40.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.3pts

Blue projected score341.5pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.2
Score range: 140–368
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

678Season APEX950.7

24.3Auto103.4

96.6Teleop187

45.4Endgame40.6

13Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	59
teleop	69	229
endgame	34	69
foul	20	0
total	157	357

Result

Final score

157 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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