Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.01 – 165.33

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.2 ±11.2

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 6.91Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 106.85Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 1.25Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.8 ±11.7

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 20.67Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 120.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 23.95Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3309, 5199, 5869

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3309, 5199, 5869

Auto

28.8 25%

Teleop

36.9 32%

Endgame

48.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5285, 599, 691

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 599, 691

Auto

33.5 20%

Teleop

98.2 59%

Endgame

35.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score165.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.3
Score range: 89–191
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.2Season APEX414.8

28.8Auto33.5

36.9Teleop98.2

48.1Endgame35

63Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	56
teleop	28	65
endgame	19	11
foul	0	0
total	83	132

Result

Final score

83 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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