Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.1 – 64.63

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±12.4

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 44.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 21.88Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 33.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±12.7

9271Cyber Porpoises

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 19.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5500Jaguars Robotics & ROVs

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 10.68Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 34.84Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4711, 6764, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 6764, 11024

Auto

14.8 15%

Teleop

64.5 66%

Endgame

17.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9271, 5500, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9271, 5500, 6060

Auto

11.6 19%

Teleop

16.2 26%

Endgame

33.4 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.5
Score range: 39–126
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.5Season APEX189.8

14.8Auto11.6

64.5Teleop16.2

17.8Endgame33.4

55Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	26	15
endgame	16	18
foul	0	5
total	58	49

Result

Final score

58 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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