Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.08 – 315.96

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

228 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.8 ±10.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 75.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8521CyberLions

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX -10.63Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 75.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.4 ±11.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 267.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 37.83Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 10.37Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 8521, 3501

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1538, 8521, 3501

Auto

26.7 19%

Teleop

95.9 67%

Endgame

19.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4414, 9520, 6934

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4414, 9520, 6934

Auto

58.1 18%

Teleop

192.2 60%

Endgame

69.3 22%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.1pts

Blue projected score316pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -175.9
Score range: 114–342
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.8Season APEX603.4

26.7Auto58.1

95.9Teleop192.2

19.5Endgame69.3

97Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	55
teleop	117	160
endgame	49	78
foul	20	0
total	228	293

Result

Final score

228 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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