Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.75 – 209.7

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.3 ±12.4

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 109.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -18.01Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -25Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.2 ±11.7

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 74.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 127.64Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 7.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 7327, 8533

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 7327, 8533

Auto

41.4 66%

Teleop

20.8 33%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6560, 6036, 5869

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6560, 6036, 5869

Auto

48.0 24%

Teleop

105.3 52%

Endgame

50.4 25%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.8pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.9
Score range: 42–235
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.3Season APEX507.2

41.4Auto48

20.8Teleop105.3

0.1Endgame50.4

53Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	44
teleop	96	130
endgame	68	40
foul	0	0
total	207	214

Result

Final score

207 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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