Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.78 – 48.96

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±11.2

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 111.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 30.76Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 8.74Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±12.8

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 28.45Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX -10.33Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 30.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 3925, 22

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 599, 3925, 22

Auto

33.4 23%

Teleop

102.9 70%

Endgame

11.1 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 691, 192, 10936

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 691, 192, 10936

Auto

19.4 42%

Teleop

7.2 16%

Endgame

19.5 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.8pts

Blue projected score49pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.8
Score range: 24–176
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX197.8

33.4Auto19.4

102.9Teleop7.2

11.1Endgame19.5

23Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	19
teleop	141	15
endgame	30	8
foul	0	0
total	222	42

Result

Final score

222 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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