Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.53 – 66.59

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±10.5

5285Sea Kings Robotics

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 26.53Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 42.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 109.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.3 ±11.7

1661Griffitrons

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -7.47Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 55.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 18.56Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5285, 1388, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5285, 1388, 5199

Auto

37.4 21%

Teleop

95.7 55%

Endgame

42.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1661, 589, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1661, 589, 3309

Auto

22.1 35%

Teleop

9.2 14%

Endgame

32.3 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.5pts

Blue projected score66.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.9
Score range: 41–205
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 142.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.4Season APEX343.3

37.4Auto22.1

95.7Teleop9.2

42.1Endgame32.3

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	81	7
endgame	31	30
foul	0	0
total	143	57

Result

Final score

143 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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